Mortgage Payment Program

This past weekend the inevitable happened: the government stepped in to take over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The two companies were placed into a conservatorship in an effort to bring some stability to the housing and mortgage market. Who are the winners and losers from this landmark move?

Winners: The investors. By investors I mean the companies that buy the debt or securities Fannie and Freddie created from the mortgages they funded. The federal government is now responsible for losses on these investments – a move which the government hopes will attract investors back to mortgage securities and create the much needed funds to fuel mortgage originations.

Losers: The shareholders. The shares prices have been in a steady decline and the move to take over the companies is not a move to buy out the shareholders. People who invested in Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac stocks are likely going to continue to be upside down (lose money on their investment) until the future of these entities is decided and, should they remain public, regain value in their share – meaning a long, long time.

As for homeowners… we will have to wait and see. With the government stepping in that should clear the way for mortgage rates to drop down. However, lending standards are still up in the air. We may not get a decision on how conservative or liberal the lending standards will be until after the next president is elected. My guess is we are likely to see stricter underwriting guidelines that are more inline with what these two companies used originally; requirements for larger down payments and more conservative debt to income ratios which may make mortgages more difficult to obtain for many.

In writing blogs about the mortgage and housing markets lately, it has been difficult to find anything not relatively depressing to write about. There simply is not a lot of good news about housing these days. This week, for the first time in what seems like months, I saw articles with at least a glimmer of good news.
New home sales rose unexpectedly in April over March but still remained near historically low levels. According to a key government report on the battered housing market, April sales came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000, up 3.3% from March. The reading was above the consensus forecast of 520,000. Another small bit of potentially good news is that, according to the same report, The median price of a new home sold in April was $246,100, up 1.5% from $242,500 a year earlier.
Like I said, it is a little good news. Unfortunately, that good news is still offset by the reality that April home sales were down 42% from their level a year earlier so that small rise in home sales prices could be skewed slightly and may not accurately reflect an uptick in home values.
By no means does this indicate the end is in sight to the housing slump. Far too many other key indicators point to tough times ahead for a while longer in the housing sector. I just thought it would be nice for a change to find some good news to talk about.

The Federal Reserve continued their long string of lowering rates and recently lowered rates again. The question I have been getting asked a lot lately is “Will this reduction lower mortgage rates and help with the mortgage crisis?” My answer to them is “Not so much.”

For those who watch mortgage rates closely have noticed that mortgage rates have actually risen slightly after of few of the recent Fed rate drops. Why? The rates that the Federal Reserve has been lowering are the rates at which banks borrow money. In a simple world, if the bank has access to cheaper funds that should mean that it trickles down to the consumers and drives down our cost to access funds in the form of loans. The mortgage market is much more complicated than that with access to funds, and the rates, driven mostly by Wall Street and their demand to buy and sell mortgage backed securities. This demand still remains low largely due to the still existing issues around declining home values and the still rising delinquency and foreclosure rates.

So, if the drop in rates by the Fed isn’t going to help the current mortgage and housing climate, what will? The best answer I can offer is time. At some point the inventory of houses will begin to shrink and home values will stabilize and the housing market will begin to recover. The silver lining? For those people who have equity in their homes – either from buying at a low point or paying down the principal balance faster – or cash to put down on a home there are a lot of bargains in the market to be had.

So, what’s behind the mortgage crisis? Who is to blame? The current mortgage crisis was caused by a series of things that all went wrong and in a chain reaction continued to cause problems throughout the entire industry. It is hard to find a single area of blame – instead errors were made by most of the players in the mortgage transaction. Here is just one example of many where things went wrong.

One of the biggest culprits to the current crisis was the use of reduced document loan programs – specifically the Stated Income, Stated Asset (SISA) products. The underwriting requirements for these products allow borrowers to state their income and asset but did not require the lender to confirm them with pay stubs and tax returns. This left open the possibility for loans to get approved for people who would not otherwise qualify for them. In many cases it was crafty Loan Officers who gamed the system by taking the application and filling in the income and assets required to get the loan approved. Sometimes borrowers were complicit in allowing this to happen so they could get the loan and in other cases the borrowers were unaware because they didn’t carefully review the huge stack of documents they were signing.

But these SISA loan products existed because there was a market place for them. Mortgage Insurance companies would insure them, the ratings agency’s would rate them high enough to be marketable, and Wall Street was buying and selling them. How could they possibly understand the true risk without having all the information necessary to assess it? Hindsight being 20/20 tells us they really couldn’t. But when everyone in the process was making money along the way, it is hard to shut something down that “seems” to be profitable. And in many cases they were making money again and again with many borrowers continuing to refinance to pull out cash and keep teaser rates as home values continued to climb. That is until values started to drop and they could not refinance any more. Today we see a lot of the SISA loans originated in the last three years going into foreclosure and a return to stringent documentation requirements on loans.